Combining Modified Weibull Distribution Models for Power System Reliability Forecast


In a deregulated context, electric utilities have been urged to use cost-effective long-term asset management measures to assure maximum system reliability. Age-based Weibull distribution models and forecasts ageing failures extensively. Although this model just takes asset age into account, it doesn't address other factors like asset infant mortality and equipment energization delays. Modeling a bathtub-shaped failure rate function by changing Weibull distribution functions can be difficult due to the complexities of the model as well as the lack of clear parameters in some cases. New Weibull distribution models for Power System applications are proposed in this research as an improvement to the current approaches. In addition, a new method is proposed in this study for evaluating several Weibull distribution models and selecting the most appropriate model (s). Furthermore, if more than one model is available, these models can be integrated to form a joint prediction model, which can better predict asset reliability in the future. A Canadian utility company used the proposed method to forecast the reliability of electromechanical relays and distribution poles to demonstrate its usefulness and feasibility.

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