Probabilistic Impact Assessment of Low Carbon Technologies in LV Distribution Systems


Residential-scale low carbon technologies (LCTs) can help decarbonizing our economies however will additionally cause technical problems, significantly in low voltage (LV) distribution systems. To quantify these issues this work proposes a probabilistic impact assessment methodology. 1st, realistic 5-min time-series daily profiles are produced for photovoltaic panels, electric heat pumps, electrical vehicles, and micro combined heat and power units. Then, to cater for the uncertainties of LCTs (e.g., size, location, and behavior), a Monte Carlo analysis is disbursed considering 100 simulations for different penetration levels (proportion of houses with a LCT). This methodology is applied to 128 real U.K. LV feeders showing that regarding half of them will have voltage and/or congestion problems at some penetration of LCTs. Furthermore, to identify the relationships between the primary incidence of issues and key feeder parameters (e.g., length, number of customers), a correlation analysis is developed per LCT. Crucially, these results can be translated into lookup tables to assist distribution network operators in producing preliminary estimates of the LCT hosting capability of a given feeder.

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