PROJECT TITLE :

Probabilistic Power Flow Analysis Based on the Stochastic Response Surface Method

ABSTRACT:

This paper proposes a probabilistic power flow analysis technique based on the stochastic response surface technique. The likelihood distributions and statistics of power flow responses will be accurately and efficiently estimated by the proposed technique without using series expansions such as the Gram-Charlier, Cornish-Fisher, or Edgeworth series. The stochastic continuous input variables following traditional distributions like masses or non-normal distributions such as photovoltaic generation and wind power and their multiple correlations can be easily modeled. The correctness, effectiveness and adaptableness of the proposed methodology are demonstrated by comparing the probabilistic power flow analysis results of the IEEE 14-bus and fifty seven-bus standard test systems obtained from the proposed technique, the purpose estimate method, and the Monte Carlo simulation method.