A Statistical Exploration of Protocol Adoption - 2017


The development and adoption of recent protocols (or of extensions to existing protocols) is arguably central to the Internet's evolution. However, and regardless of over forty years of experience with this method, we have a tendency to have limited understanding of what factors may contribute to a protocol's success. A sound technical design and a well-grounded purpose are clearly vital, however we have several samples of failures that met those two criteria. What different factors have an effect on a protocol's likelihood of success, and underneath what circumstances? We investigate this question through a statistical approach, based on analyzing a collection of regarding 250 Internet standard documents, Internet engineering task force request for comments (RFCs). We tend to characterize these RFCs using a range of key options, that we then obtain to go with positive or negative odds when it involves success. Our high-level results are intuitive, e.g., protocols that decision for Internet-wide adoption face bigger challenges. Focusing on more targeted subsets of protocols reveals a lot of refined and presumably a lot of fascinating differences between areas of the Internet landscape. We additionally apply our prediction framework to IPv6, and use totally different “what-if” situations to explore what may have affected its deployment.

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