Forecasting Frequency-Corrected Electricity Demand to Support Frequency Control


Electricity demand forecasts are needed for choices concerning generation dispatch for lead times as short as simply a jiffy. Imbalance between generation and demand causes deviation of the system frequency from its target, which in Great Britain is fifty Hz. This, in flip, causes a change in demand, due largely to motor hundreds. For Nice Britain, the modification is estimated to be two.fivepercent of demand per one Hz of frequency deviation from its target. This may be used to calculate the demand that may have occurred if frequency had been at 50 Hz. Modeling and forecasting the ensuing frequency-corrected demand provides a higher basis for dispatching generation. This paper evaluates ways for forecasting frequency-corrected demand up to ten min ahead. We tend to introduce an exponential smoothing model that, like the system operator's proposed Kalman filter approach, jointly models frequency and demand. We conjointly evaluate a group of univariate ways applied on to the series of frequency-corrected demand. These strategies haven't previously been considered for lead times less than ten min. In our empirical analysis, the simplest results were created by a seasonal exponential smoothing technique applied directly to the series of frequency-corrected demand.

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