Forecasting Brazil's electricity consumption with Pegels Exponential Smoothing Techniques


After the 2001 energy crises in Brazil, the energy sector priority has been the look and consequently the forecast middle and future energy consumption. The Energy Analysis Company (EPE for short) is in control of publishing 2 official reports: "The Ten Year Energy Planning" and "The National Energy Planning" which contain, among other things, the forecast for extended lead times. In this formulation, these horizons are 2023 and 2050. This paper aims to model and forecast the Brazilian energy consumption aggregated and disaggregated by class of consumption with Pegels Exponential Smoothing technique. Additionally to the forecast with the best model in sample, an optimization procedure of the model hyperparameters is dole out so as to regulate every one among the forecasted values with the figures provided by EPE. The results obtained show that it's possible to predict satisfactorily the electricity consumption up to 2050 for all energy sectors.

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