PROJECT TITLE :

Climate Adaptation Informatics: Water Stress on Power Production

ABSTRACT:

Resilience to nonstationarity and deep uncertainty could be a prerequisite to water security. Stakeholder designing horizons usually extend to concerning 30 years in water amount or quality management, flood or drought hazard resilience, or the water-energy-food-ecosystems nexus. Projections of stressors, such as population, land use, stability assumptions of technologies, infrastructures, and organizations, are comparatively more credible at the nearer term. However, compared to longer lead times of mid- to end-century and beyond, climate adaptation challenges are more acute. Over thirty-year horizons, the degree of nonstationarity is akin to the general uncertainty, that in flip is dominated by natural variability, particularly at higher area-time resolutions. A case study with power production at risk in the US suggests that informed choices might be potential despite nonstationarity and deep uncertainty.