PROJECT TITLE :

A Versatile Probability Model of Photovoltaic Generation Using Pair Copula Construction

ABSTRACT:

Photovoltaic (PV) generation is increasingly widespread in power systems. The nonlinear dependence associated with a large number of distributed PV sources adds the complexity to construct an correct probability model and negatively affects confidence levels and reliability, thereby ensuing during a more difficult operation of the systems. Most likelihood models have several restrictions when constructing multiple PV sources with complex dependence. This paper proposes a flexible probability model of PV generation on the idea of combine copula construction. So as to tackle the computational burden required to construct combine copula in high-dimensional cases, a systematic simplification technique is used that may considerably scale back the computational effort while preserving satisfactory precision. The proposed method will simplify the modeling procedure and give a flexible and optimal likelihood model for the PV generation with complex dependence. The proposed model is tested employing a set of historical information from colocated PV sites. It's then applied to the probabilistic load flow (PLF) study of the IEEE 118-bus system. The results demonstrate the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model.