PROJECT TITLE :

Evidence-based approach to power transmission risk assessment with component failure risk analysis

ABSTRACT :

This study presents a replacement framework for power transmission risk assessment, which considers not solely historical failure statistics of transmission systems however conjointly operation failure risks of system elements. The part failure risks are integrated into the new framework based mostly on operation condition assessment of elements using the Evidential Reasoning (ER) theory. During this study, the ancient outage probability model of transmission line has been modified to make a replacement framework for power transmission system risk assessment. The proposed ER-primarily based approach can offer a suitable mechanism to map part assessment grades to failure risks primarily based on the probabilistic behaviours of power system failures. Below the new framework, each up-to-date part failure risks and traditional system risk indices will be processed with the proposed outage model. Consequently, failure probabilities are connected not only to historical statistic knowledge but also to operation knowledge of components and derived risk indices will mirror current operation conditions of elements. In simulation studies, the ER approach is employed to guage component conditions and link such conditions to failure rates using up-to-date part operation knowledge, as well as each on-line and offline data of components. The IEEE 24-bus RTS-1979 system is used to demonstrate that component operation conditions greatly affect the general transmission system failure risk.