PROJECT TITLE :

High-Precision Forecasting Model of Solar Irradiance Based on Grid Point Value Data Analysis for an Efficient Photovoltaic System

ABSTRACT:

An correct forecasting system is extraordinarily crucial so as to simulate an optimum output level of photovoltaic (PV) power production for the next day. During this study, a comparatively high-precision model of solar irradiance forecasting primarily based on grid purpose value (GPV) datasets using relative humidity, precipitation, and 3-level cloud covers parameterization has been conducted in Hitachi and four main cities in Japan. Within the case of cloudy/rainy/snowy days, the influence of liquid water path is further introduced to the model. Consequently, correlation coefficient $r$ of zero.ninety four, 0.91, 0.ninety one, zero.eighty nine, and zero.ninety two are obtained using 21UTC forecast version in 2012 datasets for Hitachi, Tokyo, Nagoya, Osaka, and Fukuoka, respectively. Surprisingly, though the sooner forecast version, using 9UTC datasets, was later applied to the model, there was no significant amendment to the $r$ for these 5 locations as their values reduced by only approximately zero.01 at most. Furthermore, an identical trend has additionally been observed for the 2013 datasets from a comparison of 21UTC and 9UTC versions, which highly supports the fact that this model is reliable, since it still remains during a high-precision state even in the case where the earlier datasets of previous day are used.


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