Transmission Line Overload Risk Assessment for Power Systems With Wind and Load-Power Generation Correlation


In the chance-based security assessment, likelihood and severity of events are the two main factors for measuring the safety level of power systems. This paper presents a method for assessing line overload risk of wind-integrated power systems with the consideration of wind and cargo-power generation correlation. The established risk assessment model absolutely considers the probability and therefore the consequence of wind uncertainties and line flow fluctuations. The purpose estimate technique is utilized to deal with the chance of line overload and also the severity perform is applied to quantify line flow fluctuations. Moreover, with the Cholesky decomposition, the correlation between hundreds and power generations are simulated by the spatial transformation of likelihood distributions of random variables. In addition, Nataf transformation is employed to deal with wind resource correlation. Finally, the road overload risk index is obtained, that will be used as an indicator for quantifying power system security. Numerical results on the changed IEEE thirty-bus system and therefore the modified IEEE 118-bus system show that the sorts and therefore the parameters of the wind speed distribution would affect the chance indices of line overload, and the risk indices obtained with the consideration of wind resource correlation and cargo correlation would reflect the system security more accurately.

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