Comparison of the Weibull and the Crow-AMSAA Model in Prediction of Early Cable Joint Failures
This paper compares the appliance of the Weibull distribution and therefore the Crow-AMSAA (C-A) model to the analysis of cable joint failures. The procedures on how to use the 2 models to research failure data and to predict the longer term variety of failures are described before the models are applied to a group of early failure information. The info, that include 16 failures and 1126 suspensions, were collected from a regional power-offer company in China. This paper proves that the Weibull distribution provides a lot of reliable results in the analysis of early-failure data since it considers the time to failure of each event. Whilst the method is more easy and needs less info, applying the C-A model can yield confusing results if not handled carefully. When analyzing the events, using time as x-axis and using the cable joint population as an axis will complement each other. Separating those knowledge into subsections and analyzing them independently will yield useful information. Recent failure knowledge can higher replicate the current state of cable joints. The results of this paper should facilitate utility asset managers better analyze their past failure events.
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